Place your bets for gamble on Macao boom
June 2007 | Financial Times

There is a place in greater China where the economy is growing even faster than the soaraway mainland, where gross domestic product is rising at 15 per cent a year, and where average wages are climbing at a similar rate.

Welcome to Macao, the special territory handed back by Portugal to China in 1999, which is experiencing a casino-led, once-in-a-lifetime boom.

The ratio of cranes to surface area whirring away on the Cotai strip - land recently reclaimed between two of Macao's three islands - is high enough to give Dubai a run for its money.

For international investors looking to put money into Asia, a Macao punt must be tempting.

However, a debate rages over whether the growth story forms part of a genuine, sustainable re-rating of the economy or an investment-led boom that is likely to blow up when the speculators move on to the next opportunity.

Of course, the simplest way to make money out of Macao is to jump on the one-hour ferry from Hong Kong and head for one of the territory's casinos.

Local casino king Stanley Ho lost his monopoly five years ago, after which US groups such as Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands landed to spruce up the Macao gaming experience.

However, fund managers can play Macao via that other risky casino - the stock market.

It is worth remembering that gaming revenues in Macao last year climbed 22 per cent to $6.95bn, surpassing the Las Vegas strip as the world's biggest gaming hub in revenue for the first time.

The forecast further rise in gaming revenues, as China allows millions more of its citizens every year to travel to Macao, has helped turn the spotlight on listed gaming operators.

Several are listed in the US, including Wynn and Sands, whose share prices have been boosted by their Macao adventures.

There is Melco PBL, the joint venture between Macao's Melco and Australia's PBL, which listed on Nasdaq last December and is a pure play on the territory.

Melco PBL's first casino, Crown Macao, opened last month over budget and with most of its higher-margin VIP tables unfinished. Investors will be hoping the opening of the partnership's City of Dreams underwater casino on the Cotai strip next year runs smoother.

Then there is Hong Kong-listed Galaxy Entertainment, which runs five casinos and is quietly fancied by many analysts.

Galaxy focuses on attracting the nouveaux riches of the mainland, who make up 80 per cent of the gamblers who visit Macao. The company's market share is a creditable 21 per cent, while its share of the crucial VIP market is nearer 30 per cent.

At only eight times 2009 earnings, Billy Ng at JPMorgan rates Galaxy as the cheapest of the Macao gaming plays, given that its peers trade at between 11 times and 16 times forward earnings. He believes the share price could rise 25 per cent to HK$10 by the end of the year from HK$8.06 yesterday.

The other sector to target is property. Choice abounds here too.

Among them are Hong Kong-listed Shun Tak, which is developing many of Macao's high-end residences, and the Macau Property Opportunities Fund, whose share price has risen 30 per cent since listing on London's Alternative Investment Market a year ago. Analysts are divided on whether property companies will continue to benefit from the boom.

For instance, the brains at Goldman Sachs are bullish on Polytec Asset Holdings, believing the Hong Kong-listed developer is well positioned to benefit from the territory's strong fundamentals. Goldman's Anthony Wu says: "Macao is becoming less dependent on gaming, and this will help support the economy and the housing sector over the long term." Not so, according to George Choi at Citigroup, who this week slapped a "sell" recommendation on the stock. He says: "We believe that the property market is driven by speculators; also, that developers will face higher land acquisition and labour construction costs, which will depress future margins."

Citigroup notes that a record 17,000 residential units are committed to be built over the next four years, fuelling rampant wage inflation among the hard-hat brigade. The government is also set to change policy and dispose of its land through auctions, not back-room deals, a move likely to drive up acquisition costs.

Then again, owner occupation in Macao is close to 80 per cent, and locals typically spend only a quarter of household income on mortgage repayments. With wages rising fast, there is room for the Macanese to upgrade to newer apartments.

The bulls say only 20 per cent of the $35bn committed to investment in the territory has been spent, ensuring the growth story will continue for a while. Even Sir Richard Branson, the UK entrepreneur, is trying to jump on the bandwagon and acquire land and a licence to build a $3bn casino.

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